A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy baseball categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
Willy Adames’ 112 RBI were a lie
Adames set career-highs in homers (32), runs scored (93), RBI (112) and stolen bases (21) during his contract year last season. Hitting mostly cleanup helped Adames' run production, but his RBI total came thanks to historical opportunity. Adames saw the most plate appearances (224) with runners in scoring position last season since 2012. He tied Ken Griffey Jr. with the most three-run homers in a season in MLB history (and later added a grand slam). Moreover, Adames posted a 1.073 OPS with runners in scoring position but just a .694 OPS with the bases empty. Adames ran incredibly hot with RISP, yet he still somehow left the sixth-most men on base (70) last season, highlighting just how many RBI opportunities he received.
Adames will be hitting in a different lineup and in a much more favorable pitcher's park after signing in San Francisco. Adames' big increase in RBI production last season came thanks to unsustainable opportunity that's sure to regress in 2025.
Hunter Greene’s 2.75 ERA was a lie
Greene had an unlucky ERA over his first two seasons in the league, but he had an extremely fortunate one in 2024. Greene's 2.75 ERA would've ranked fourth-best among qualified pitchers (he was just 10 innings short), but his 3.81 SIERA would've ranked 30th.
Greene's .237 BABIP would've been the third-lowest among qualified starters, and his 80.5% LOB would've been the fourth-highest. Greene's 6.9% HR/FB rate would've ranked as the second-lowest, and he entered last season with a 15.2% career mark. Great American Ballpark has increased home runs an MLB-high 28% over the last three seasons, and it also typically sports one of the league's highest BABIPs. Greene was able to return for two starts at the end of last season, but he was sidelined in August with right elbow soreness.
Greene is an exciting young pitcher with legit stuff, but it’s tough throwing half his games in such a hitter’s paradise. Greene’s ADP is inflated thanks to a misleading ERA last season.
Christopher Morel’s .196/.288/.346 batting line was a lie
Morel struggled mightily last season, especially after getting traded to Tampa Bay, when he hit just .191/.258/.289 with three homers over 49 games. Morel's BA fell more than 50 points compared to 2023 despite raising his BB% and lowering his K% a full five points. He had the fourth-biggest difference in wOBA and expected wOBA among all hitters last season. Morel's .233 BABIP was the second lowest among 129 qualified batters. Morel had a .311 BABIP over his first two seasons in the league, so his hit rate should bounce back in 2025.
Morel is one season removed from posting an impressive batted ball profile as a sophomore, and he should be more comfortable in 2025 with no mid-season trade and a defensive spot in the outfield. He also gets a major boost in home parks with the Rays moving from pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field to a warm-weather Yankee Stadium. OOPSY projects Morel to hit .247 with 25 homers and 10 steals (in fewer than 120 games!) with a 128 wRC+. Morel is eligible at 2B/3B/OF, is still just 25 years old and capable of reaching 30 homers. Morel is a discount in fantasy drafts thanks to his misleading 2024.
Ryan Helsley’s 49 saves were a lie
Helsley was great in 2024 while posting a 2.04 ERA, but he ran hot closing out games. Helsley's 49 saves led MLB and set a franchise record; he somehow did so with the Cardinals winning just 83 games, as Helsley posted a save during an unsustainable 59% of St. Louis' wins. The rebuilding Cardinals are projected to win even fewer games (79) in 2025, and Helsley had never recorded 20 saves or reached 65.0 innings in the majors before last year. He has a long injury history and averaged 99.6 mph with his fastball last season (fifth highest among relievers).
Moreover, Helsley’s K% saw a significant drop from his previous two seasons, and his 3.08 SIERA ranked a more modest 35th among relief pitchers. Helsley is also an upcoming free agent who’s a candidate to be traded midseason. Don’t let last season’s gaudy save total influence you into drafting Helsley as a top five fantasy closer in 2025.
Brandon Pfaadt’s 4.71 ERA was a lie
Pfaadt’s 4.71 ERA last season ranked bottom-five among qualified starters, but it also came with a 3.65 SIERA that ranked No. 21 — ahead of new teammate, Corbin Burnes. Only one qualified starting pitcher owned a lower LOB% (64.5) than Pfaadt last year, and that should regress in 2025. Pfaadt started to pitch like an ace after the All-Star break, although his bloated 5.93 ERA in the second half certainly doesn’t show it (thanks to a .368 BABIP that led the league by a mile).
Pfaadt's 22.1 K-BB% after the All-Star break would've ranked sixth-best among starters for the season. His 29.4% CSW ranked top 15 in the second half, one spot behind Paul Skenes. Chase Field remains a slightly favorable hitter's park, but it's decreased homers by 14% over the last three seasons (the fifth-most). Pfaadt's ADP (SP55 in Yahoo) is much lower than it should be thanks to last year's inflated ERA.